Session 10: Technology Assessment and Forecasting; Developing a Framework for Understanding What Comes Next

Brief summary:

-       A new technological innovation might bring in economic, social, ethical/legal, and environmental effects.

-       There is a need to prioritize in deciding whether & when to invest in R&D of new technologies – especially in developing countries, as they have lesser resources to play around with.

-       Whenever you start a change initiative, you can never know everything. However, you need to be keenly aware of the market dynamics and understand how to improve and adapt to suit their needs.

Interesting observations & ideas:

-       Obama was using electronic media in his political campaign

-       Ideas from fantasy science fiction culture as inspiration for current technologies. For instance, in Space Odyssey (a film made in 1968), the spacesuits that were used then are used in current times!

-       There are two kinds of sci-fi: Soft Science Fiction, which is based on social sciences, and Hard Science Fiction, which is based on scientific facts and theories.

Key takeaways:

1. Start with a blank sheet of paper. Dream without constraints! Then, give it a reality check & plot your path towards success.

2. Importance of constantly engaging the public in the change management process, with the purpose of reconciling cultural differences with new technology. There is also a potential for developing business ideas from this.

Issues for further discussion:

-       Cultural “stickiness” – it is important to take into consideration the market’s culture when implementing a new technology. Should technology adapt to culture, or culture adapt to technology? I believe that that is the essence of Disruptive Technology – where a revolutionary technology comes in and changes the way the market operates. I feel that as long as a technology is inherently beneficial, it will be able to win followers through rational persuasion of its practical benefits.

My rating for this lesson:

8/10. Quite an interesting session and I learnt some frameworks that could be applied to my individual topical paper!

6 Reasons Why I'd Never Marry a Robot

1. They don't have soul. Ok, or maybe next time technology will be such that robots can think and feel independently? But that will still be a product of a bunch of scientists. And so...I'd never be able to detach myself from that fact and it's still kinda gross to love a machine

2. We'll never have a strong relationship. I'll probably replace mine once I get bored of the features of my current one. That's probably not what I want for a life partner. Or am I just being a girl? (I WONDER IF MALES WILL WANT THAT, HMMM.)

3. They may be perfect compared to humans, but... I'll be dealing with hundreds of pounds of plastics, steels, fluids and wires. What if there's a technical glitch or virus, which causes it to become like the Terminator, thus killing me in a matter of seconds? *Ahh!*

4. What will happen in bed? 

5. How about our kids?!

6. I can control it. I don't think that's the essence of love, getting exactly what you want out of something, even to the extent of controlling it. PLUS, seriously, what a henpecked husband that'd be!


P.S. Well. You may not agree with me. You may instead identify with Zoltan, a 33 year old guy from Georgia who has a great tale of robo-love. Read about his story at: http://gizmodo.com/367698/technosexual-one-mans-tale-of-robot-love

Session 9: Emerging tech (fave lesson thus far)

“There is a space between man’s imagination and man’s attainment that may be transversed by his longing.”

-       Kahlil Gibran

Brief summary:

1.            We explored the various aspects of emerging technology like nanotechnology, computer-based simulation technologies and so on. We recapped that technology is either market-driven or technology-driven, and established that innovation has two parts: the invention and the bringing of the idea to the market place.
2.         What are the possibilities for emerging technology? Whether an idea gets implemented or not depends if there are these 4 Smarts in place: 

o   Smart people- creativity, hands- on approach in wanting to apply idea to market

o   Smart ideas – Need to create conducive environment for ideas to bounce about.

o   Smart money  - You can’t drive things forward without $$. Coming from either governments or investors.

o   Smart alliances & partnerships – Marketing & advertizing/legal people (for patents). If you want to take it global, make sure you have distributors and contacts.

Interesting observations & ideas:

- ‘The perfect woman’.

•          There is an ongoing project to make an artificial woman who can give you a hydraulic massage, cook a meal. Inventors said that there are millions of lonely guys around the world, thus there will definitely be a need for it. Yes, I guess it’s true that there are more and more lonely people on this world especially with increasing hectic lifestyles. Perhaps this will fill a great need for efficiency, including efficiency in finding the perfect partner and getting one’s needs fulfilled by the relationship. Will a perfect partner be the answer to this? I shall write a separate post about this later because I REALLY FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT THIS! Haha.

 

- Augmented Reality

• Where reality is richer and more interesting. This is a very exciting technology as it has many applications in different fields. Would really like to have the application on my mobile phone, as it makes thing so much more convenient. Especially useful in today’s busy times when we don’t have time to seek out information actively; such a technology will present information to you when needed.
• The emergence of this will increase the need of companies to keep up with technology, perhaps to monitor their reputation online. What about those that are lagging behind? This also opens the commercial world to sabotage and criticism; one can no longer have such a tight grip over corporate image, as the main platform for this is now consumer-based.

Pornography as a driver of technology.

• How technology has progressed very quickly in areas with these applications. As Brennan pointed out, we have YouTube because of porn. The same goes for other advancements in 3D technology and artificial beings. I find this quite funny but true. This is an example of market-driven technology, where there is a true human need. And this need is never-ending. Besides, there is no such thing as a monopoly in this field as variety is perhaps celebrated. (haha)

Key takeaways:

1. I found it interesting how today’s discussions became closer to the heart, or the essence of being human. Perhaps this is symbolic of how technology has progressed: from meeting the basic needs like food and water (in previous weeks) to more intermediate uses like mass media and communications, to emerging fields such as even having artificial partners. It is similar to the triangle of human needs (Maslow's hierarchy of human needs):

1. Reinforcing the concepts learnt from previous weeks, the need for understanding the market before implementing the technology.
2.  The theme of technology being a very powerful tool, yet one that is potentially dangerous and controversial at the same time. Thus the need for good regulation and receptive minds (or do we really want to receive it? This depends on what we stand for in life.)

Issues for further discussion:

-       1. How can we change mindsets to accept radical kinds of technology? Or do we even need to try? (if it is a matter of time.) Perhaps we could do a case-study on any past controversial technology, and see how this psychological barrier was overcome.

-       2. As we go up the ‘human needs’ triangle, what about technology & religion? Is there any way that these two traditionally contradicting fields can converge? Human-created things vs God-created things.

My ratings for this lesson

9.8/10. Very interesting & loved the topic. The possibilities are infinite! Wonder what life is going to be like in 5 years time. But I will certainly NOT love a robot. Minus 0.2 points because it ended late and I ended up being late for my next class!

The Green Gameplan: How can we move forward?

Here are some ideas I thought of and shared in class:

 1.    An Enviro-fund. Create a national fund for green energy development, which works like company shares. Members of the public would be able to purchase quantities of it and reap returns in the long term. This would provide the capital for R&D and initial equipment. It is preferable to have these created and managed by private organizations – such that there is a bottomline that would ensure a sustained effort towards real growth and development. Since the green industry is clearly a potential area for growth, and if the country’s policy is clear that it will increasingly rely on it, such an Enviro-fund can be marketed as a low-risk, high-return long-term investment. I feel that this may be an innovative way of pooling together the funds of the public to raise necessary capital to move green technology forward. Not only will it raise fund – the fact that people have a stake in it will also shift their mindsets to be more pro-green energy, which is crucial for such a green revolution.

2.    An alternative way to raise awareness and shift mindsets. Other than the traditional way of educating the public about the goodness of green tech, perhaps business idea competitions focusing on innovative ways of applying green technology could be organized. Not only will this be a cheap way of garnering new ideas (solving the problem of the innovation deficit in the energy industry), it will also get the younger generation to think about what they can do to effect change. Instead of spoon-feeding information, such competitions would nudge students to find the answers for themselves, and such experiential learning would leave a more lasting impression on students. (Similar to how the education industry is increasingly moving towards such an approach.) Creating their own ideas would also create a sense of ownership. Therefore, other than ensuring the technical and financial aspects are sound, it is also important to ensure that society’s hearts and minds are ready for such change – especially that of the young generation, which would eventually become the movers and shakers of the next stage of the world’s development.

Session 8: The dawn of a new day

Energy and World Change (Past, Present and Future)

Brief summary:

The days of fossil fuel are numbered. Renewable energy will drive the green revolution. – Gurinder Shahi

There is an increasing need for new ways to produce energy, as fossil fuels are not only pollutive, but also limited in number. We’ve exceeded more than half of all available oil, and it is estimated to last us about 40 to 50 years. Even though we had an unprecedented decrease in energy consumption last year, this was primarily due to the world economic recession. There’s a theory that 2008 was Peak Oil.  

Interesting fact of the day: China is investing the most in clean energy in the whole world! Surprise, surprise. This is probably driven by necessity, due to their rapid modernization and rising middle class.

We also watched a number of videos today on energy sustainability and where it is in the world today. How do we get there? It seems that political will is of ultimate importance, as they have the financial muscle to influence R & D processes, without which, innovation for sustainable energy would not be possible. Private entities are less likely to want to invest in this as energy companies are already comfortable with the high revenues they get, and there is not much need for innovation as energy is a necessity with high price-inelastic demand. However, it is interesting to note that the increase in oil prices pushed the green revolution – as companies were seeking more affordable, long-term alternatives. This highlights how humans are short-term and innovations are needs-driven.

Interesting observations & ideas:

1.     Singapore is 100% dependent on other countries for energy. Energy Security is a concern of every country and governments have to ensure that there is sufficient energy for economic growth and development.

2.     Energy as a source of national income. This is a smart way of killing two birds with one stone – achieving both energy security and economic growth at the same time.

3.     Using cash to incentivize people to go into solar energy. Imagine if Singapore were to adopt it.

4.     WW.Energy grid. If we can have a world wide web, can’t we have a world wide energy grid? Aim: to create a win-win situation among those who want it and those who supply it. The energy grid would indicate demand and suppliers can then address that demand.

5.     The innovation deficit in the Energy Industry.

Issues for further discussion:

Energy Grid. How would this work?

Here’s an example of a Energy Grid company, EnergyGrid Networks, A Smart Grid Solutions Company.

Taken from their site, http://www.energygridnetworks.com:

“We partner with Utilities to transform legacy electric grids and infrastructures to create a next generation of Utility applications and Smart Grid network solutions. By leveraging our technical and operating expertise, EnergyGrid Networks provides a global platform for new services, allowing Utilities to cost effectively and reliably communicate with their customers to improve service, lower operating costs, and better manage energy supply and demand."

Such an energy grid seems especially feasible in this age where many parts of the world are densely linked up by infocommunication technologies, which serve as platforms for such utility applications to work. Perhaps the emerging technology of cloud computing could also be integrated with energy grids.

However, in implementing such an initiative, there are some issues I foresee that need to be addressed. If there is to be a consolidated, single grid to be formed, this requires collaboration among all the energy conglomerates of the world, and the main companies in each country. Given companies’ differing business perspectives and profit motives, there is a need for an authority for decision making. Should the governments be in charge or should a private committee be set up? For such a good that is necessary for survival, there should definitely be an element of governmental regulation to prevent exploitation.

Key takeaways:

1.     The drive towards energy sustainability will only be successful if the goals of government, private companies and individuals are met.

2.     Aligning of goals boils down to governmental policy toolkits.

3.     There is a pressing need to commercialize new energy alternatives, in order to make it attractive to the mass market for significant energy change.

My ratings for this lesson

8/10. The lesson today enriched my knowledge about the green sector and its future, and I found it especially useful for my group’s web report. I also like how some presentations brought out new and interesting technologies, which made me think, “why haven’t we thought of that?!” Indeed, an exciting future for the green industry lies ahead.

Thank god for technology!

What a day hahaha I left my all-important TWC Individual Review Paper brainstorms in my friend's bag!!

Needed it by tonight.
Panicked.

Then my friend volunteered to scan it in.
Yay.

The power of technology indeed in making up for human's negligence, laziness, ...., and other imperfections.